New business people will often pull numbers out of thin air, and justify them with logical sounding explanations. Even established brands such as Kellogg’s make this mistake--it is not just new entrepreneurs. Kellogg’s made this mistake when they tried to introduce eating cereal in the morning into India. Their researchers justified the move by saying that if only 2-3% of the Indian people decided to buy their cereal--that they would make a profit because India has 1.1 billion inhabitants. Kellogg’s took massive losses in trying to introduce morning cereal into India, because nobody wanted to eat cold cereal in place of their usual boiled vegetable breakfast cuisine. This was a silly mistake that was made by an established firm, but a new entrepreneur cannot afford such a mistake.